Sociological quasi-labs: The case for deductive scenario development

Staats- und Gesellschaftswissenschaften

Ruser, Alexander

Sociological quasi-labs: The case for deductive scenario development

Ruser, Alexander: Sociological quasi-labs: The case for deductive scenario development, Current Sociology, 2015; Jg. 2015 (63) Suppl. 2: 170-181: http://DOI:0.1177/0011392114556581.

Originalarbeiten in wissenschaftlichen Fachzeitschriften mit Review-Verfahren

This article questions why sociology still lacks elaborate methods of scientific forecasting. Following a critical discussion of two main obstacles for sociological futures research – complexity and interaction – the deductive scenario development approach is introduced. Since scenario planning stresses plausibility not probability, it enables sociologists to create logical, not likely pictures of alternative futures. As a way of producing scientific results concerning future developments as well as testing scientific models, deductive scenario planning is labelled as sociological quasi-labs.

http://DOI:0.1177/0011392114556581

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