Rivers and Trade

Geography and infrastructure are well-known determinants of trade. The previous literature focused mainly on distance, common border, access to the sea as opposed to landlocked countries, and common borders. More recently, gravity models included travel time and infrastructure quality. With this respect, rivers represent natural borders between the nations, but also natural pathways for trade, culture, and a political dominance or nation formation, which may have ambiguous impact on trade. While these effects dominated trade in the past, they provide a sound base for trade also today. We expand the existing bilateral geographical CEPII-database by adding detailed information on bilateral river borders and indirect river linkages for 1,560 Eurasian country pairs (40 countries). Applying panel estimations of gravity models, we assess the impact of international rivers on European trade on disaggregate trade data including both trade flows and margins of trade. We show that substantial river borders are significantly detrimental to trade, while international rivers have a small but positive net impact on European trade also today.

Projektbeginn: 01.01.2017
Projektende: 01.01.2020

Prof. Dr. Jarko Fidrmuc, Prof. Dr. Richard Frensch

Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen
Zeppelin-Lehrstuhl für Internationale Wirtschaftstheorie & -politik (eingerichtet 05 / 2011)

Am Seemooser Horn 20
88045 Friedrichshafen

Telefon: +49 7541 6009-1241
Fax: +49 7541 6009-1299
Email: jarko.fidrmuc@zu.de
http://www.zeppelin-university.de/deutsch/lehrstuehle/internationales_management/internationales_management_profil.php